Characterisation of large changes in wind power for the day-ahead market using a fuzzy logic approach

Wind power has become one of the renewable resources with a major growth in the electricity market. However, due to its inherent variability, forecasting techniques are necessary for the optimum scheduling of the electric grid, specially during ramp events. These large changes in wind power may not be captured by wind power point forecasts even with very high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. In this paper, a fuzzy approach for wind power ramp characterisation is presented. The main benefit of this technique is that it avoids the binary definition of ramp event, allowing to identify changes in power out- put that can potentially turn into ramp events when the total percentage of change to be considered a ramp event is not met. To study the application of this technique, wind power forecasts were obtained and their corresponding error estimated using Genetic Programming (GP) and Quantile Regression Forests. The error distributions were incorporated into the characterisation process, which according to the results, improve significantly the ramp capture. Results are presented using colour maps, which provide a useful way to interpret the characteristics of the ramp events

Filtering Outliers in One Step with Genetic Programming

Outliers are one of the most difficult issues when dealing with real-world modeling tasks. Even a small percentage of outliers can impede a learning algorithm’s ability to fit a dataset. While robust regression algorithms exist, they fail when a dataset is corrupted by more than 50% of outliers (breakdown point). In the case of Genetic Programming, robust regression has not been properly studied. In this paper we present a method that works as a filter, removing outliers from the target variable (vertical outliers). The algorithm is simple, it uses a randomly generated population of GP trees to determine which target values should be labeled as outliers. The method is highly efficient. Results show that it can return a clean dataset when contamination reaches as high as 90%, and may be able to handle higher levels of contamination. In this study only synthetic univariate benchmarks are used to evaluate the approach, but it must be stressed that no other approaches can deal with such high levels of outlier contamination while requiring such small computational effort